Global Freight Rates Stabilize and Rebound: SCFI Rises 2.8% Led by U.S. Trade Lanes as Carriers Implement Multi-Route Rate Adjustments Effective Mid-April"

The global shipping market has reached a critical inflection point as persistently declining freight rates finally stabilized and rebounded. According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on April 3, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose 2.8% week-over-week to 1,392.78 points, ending its previous consecutive downward trajectory. 

A divergence emerged among major transoceanic routes: European routes saw a modest 1.4% increase, while U.S. West Coast and East Coast routes registered substantial gains of 6.2% and 3.5% respectively. Conversely, Mediterranean routes continued their sluggish performance, though the decline narrowed to 2.3%.

This rebound primarily stems from stabilized transportation demand. China's March manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.2, with business confidence reaching its highest level since early 2024, providing fundamental support for export markets. Notably, North American routes have entered their annual long-term contract negotiation cycle. Compounded by potential rail strike risks in Canada that could divert cargo flows to U.S. East Coast ports, these factors are exerting upward pressure on transpacific freight rates.

However, multiple uncertainties persist. The Trump administration's recently announced "reciprocal tariff" policy, set to take effect April 9, will increase tariffs on Chinese goods to 54%. This development could trigger supply chain realignments and behavioral adjustments among shippers, who have already exhibited caution through order cancellations, shipment deferrals, or accelerated cargo movements. Near-term volatility in U.S.-bound cargo volumes appears inevitable.

In response to market dynamics, leading carriers including Maersk and CMA CGM have announced peak season surcharges effective April 15 for Middle East, Indian Subcontinent, West African, South American, and regional routes, with certain lanes facing up to 70% increases. While carriers maintain rate discipline through capacity management strategies like blank sailings, the operational efficacy of these measures remains uncertain. Industry analysts caution that accelerated new vessel deliveries could create oversupply pressures, potentially weighing on rates in the second half of 2025.

The current market exhibits characteristics of "short-term recovery coexisting with long-term structural recalibration." Shippers must closely monitor carrier pricing adjustments and evolving tariff policies to optimize shipment planning. Concurrently, carriers face the challenge of balancing capacity rationalization against demand fluctuations to avoid replicating the severe rate volatility witnessed after the 2024 Red Sea crisis. Strategic navigation of these dual imperatives will prove critical for sustained market stability.