🌐 Slower Global Trade Growth Expected in H2 2025: How Should Exporters and Cross-Border Sellers Respond?

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🌐 Slower Global Trade Growth Expected in H2 2025: How Should Exporters and Cross-Border Sellers Respond?

1. Signs of Slowing Global Trade Growth

The World Trade Organization (WTO) recently released its latest Goods Trade Barometer, showing that the global goods trade index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5, remaining above the baseline of 100. This indicates continued growth in global merchandise trade.

However, it is worth noting that the New Export Orders Index dropped to 97.9, entering contraction territory. As a leading indicator, this suggests that global trade momentum may weaken in the second half of 2025. According to the WTO, the strong trade performance earlier this year was largely driven by importers placing orders in advance to avoid upcoming tariff hikes—a trend that is unlikely to continue.

2. U.S. GDP Revised Downward as Imports Surge

On the same day, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the country’s Q1 2025 GDP contracted at an annualized rate of -0.5%, further downgraded from previous estimates. The revision reflects weaker consumer spending and lackluster export performance.

Specifically, U.S. imports surged by 37.9%, while exports rose only 0.4%, causing net imports to drag GDP down by approximately 4.7 percentage points. Analysts point to recent tariff policy changes as a key driver behind this structural shift in trade and economic weakness.

✅ Actionable Recommendations for Exporters & Cross-Border E-commerce Sellers

(Optimized for China–USA Logistics & Amazon FBA Supply Chains)

1. 📦 Lock in Shipping Rates While the Market Stabilizes

With the early-year shipping peak fading, freight rates for FCL (full container load), LCL (less than container load), and air freight from China to the U.S. are stabilizing. Exporters are advised to secure capacity and rates early by partnering with a reliable freight forwarder China to USA, minimizing the risks of space shortages or port delays later in the year.

2. 🚀 Optimize Amazon FBA Shipping and Customs Strategy

For Amazon FBA sellers, it’s crucial to adjust shipping frequency and leverage weekly consolidation services to reduce costs and improve operational flexibility. Work with freight forwarders that offer DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) services to ensure smooth delivery to Amazon warehouses in the USA.

3. 🛃 Choose DDP/DDU to Ensure Hassle-Free Customs Clearance

As U.S. tariff and compliance regulations continue to evolve, small and mid-sized exporters and e-commerce sellers should opt for DDP or DDU shipping solutions, where the freight forwarder handles customs clearance, duties, and last-mile delivery. This helps mitigate risks like customs delays or incorrect declarations.

4. 🏬 Integrate 3PL Warehousing and Return Solutions in the U.S.

To reduce lead time and enhance customer experience, cross-border sellers should utilize U.S.-based 3PL warehouse services for inventory pre-positioning. Choose freight forwarders who also provide returns handling, relabeling, and warehouse transfer services to build a more flexible supply chain.

✍ Final Thoughts

As global trade shifts from post-pandemic recovery to a more moderate pace, exporters and e-commerce sellers must focus on operational efficiency and supply chain agility. By securing cost-effective shipping options, working with experienced freight forwarders, and enhancing customs and inventory capabilities, businesses can navigate uncertainty and stay competitive in H2 2025.

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