Air Cargo Market Trends Between China-US and Regional Impacts

1.Reduced China-US Cargo Capacity  

-Three major Chinese airlines (Air China, China Cargo Airlines, China Southern Airlines) plan to cancel cargo services between China and the US.  

-E-commerce shipments from China to the US dropped by 50% year-on-year since mid-April, with fewer charter flights or rerouted services.  

-Flight frequencies decreased at key airports in North, East, and South China (e.g., weekly flights from Tianjin reduced by 40%, some cargo flights suspended in Guangzhou).  

2.Key Reasons  

-Uncertainty about new China-US tariffs caused businesses to pause new orders.  

-Upcoming US policy changes:  

  • Ending tax exemptions for low-value goods under $800.  

  • Imposing tariffs on medical and semiconductor products under Section 232.  

-Shift in manufacturing: Some Chinese production moved to Mexico (using benefits from USMCA trade agreement).  

3.Regional Market Changes  

-Growing Markets:  

  • Mexico (surge in cargo demand; book space 2-4 days ahead).  

  • Southeast Asia and Taiwan (protected by 90-day US tariff delays).  

  • India (expects higher demand as buyers replace Chinese goods).  

-Challenged Areas:  

  • North America (delays at Los Angeles ports due to congestion).  

  • Vietnam (shipments postponed indefinitely).  

  • South Korea (fewer flights due to aircraft maintenance).  

4.Industry Responses  

-Capacity Adjustment: Shift China-US cargo capacity to Mexico/Latin America.  

-Logistics Tips:  

  • Book cargo space at least two weeks early for US routes.  

  • Monitor changes from companies like DHL.  

  • Track updates on the *Manifest Modernization Act* (public customs data).  

5.Policy Outlook  

-US Congress may pass laws to limit presidential power over tariffs.  

-Possible easing of some tariffs on Chinese goods.  

-New tariffs on medical/semiconductor goods likely to start soon.